India, now the world’s most populous nation, is projected to reach a population of 1.46 billion by the end of 2025, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) State of World Population Report 2025. This milestone reinforces India’s position ahead of China, which it surpassed in 2023. However, alongside this population growth, the country is experiencing a significant demographic shift, with the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropping to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population without migration. This decline in fertility, coupled with an aging population and a youthful workforce, presents both opportunities and challenges for India’s future. This article explores the implications of India’s population dynamics, the reasons behind the falling fertility rate, and the potential economic, social, and policy impacts, drawing on recent reports and expert analyses.
Population Growth and Demographic Trends
India’s population has grown steadily over the decades, rising from 350 million in 1950 to an estimated 1.46 billion in 2025. The United Nations demographic report projects that India’s population will peak at approximately 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before beginning to decline. This trajectory is driven by a combination of declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy, which is projected to reach 71 years for men and 74 years for women by 2025. The country’s demographic composition remains youthful, with 24% of the population aged 0–14, 17% aged 10–19, and 26% aged 10–24. The working-age population (15–64) constitutes 68%, while the elderly (65 and older) make up 7%. This demographic dividend—a large working-age population relative to dependents—offers India a unique window to boost economic growth, provided it can harness this potential through education, employment, and healthcare investments.
However, the declining fertility rate signals a significant shift. The TFR, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (15–49), has fallen from nearly 5 in 1970 to 1.9 in 2025, according to the UNFPA report. This drop below the replacement level of 2.1 indicates that, without migration, India’s population will eventually shrink as fewer children are born to replace the current generation. Regional variations are stark: southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh report TFRs between 1.5 and 1.6, while northern states like Bihar (3.0), Uttar Pradesh (2.7), and Meghalaya (2.9) remain above the replacement level. These disparities highlight the uneven pace of demographic transition across India.
Factors Driving the Decline in Fertility Rates
Several factors contribute to India’s declining fertility rate, reflecting broader social, economic, and cultural changes:
- Increased Education and Empowerment of Women: Education, particularly for women, has been a significant driver of lower fertility rates. As more women access higher education and enter the workforce, they tend to delay marriage and childbirth, resulting in smaller families. The mean age at effective marriage for women has risen from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021, reflecting changing social norms. Educated women are also more likely to use contraception and make informed reproductive choices.
- Urbanization and Rising Living Costs: Rapid urbanization has increased the cost of raising children, particularly in cities. Urban families, facing higher living expenses and space constraints, often opt for smaller families. The urban TFR is notably lower at 1.6 compared to 2.3 in rural areas, as seen in states like Bihar.
- Access to Contraception and Family Planning: Improved access to reproductive healthcare and modern contraceptives has empowered individuals to plan their families. Government initiatives and awareness campaigns have reduced unintended pregnancies, though the UNFPA report notes that 36% of adult Indians still face unintended pregnancies, and 30% have unfulfilled desires for having more or fewer children.
- Economic and Social Pressures: Economic uncertainties, job market challenges, and the desire for financial stability before starting a family contribute to lower fertility. Additionally, cultural shifts toward individualism and career prioritization among younger generations have reduced the emphasis on large families.
- Infertility Challenges: An estimated 25–30 million Indians face infertility, but only 2% seek medical help due to accessibility and affordability barriers. This issue further contributes to the declining TFR, particularly in urban areas and southern states.
Implications of a Declining Fertility Rate
The decline in India’s fertility rate has far-reaching implications for its economy, society, and policy framework:
Economic Impacts
A declining fertility rate could lead to a shrinking workforce over time, potentially reducing India’s demographic dividend. The current 68% working-age population is a significant asset, but as fertility rates drop and the population ages, the dependency ratio (the proportion of non-working to working-age individuals) will rise. By 2050, the elderly population is expected to reach 200 million, up from 130 million today. Southern states, with TFRs as low as 1.5–1.6, are already experiencing workforce shortages, with some industries relying on migrant labor from northern states like Uttar Pradesh.
The economic implications are twofold. On one hand, a smaller workforce could strain economic growth, particularly in labor-intensive sectors. On the other hand, a lower birth rate could reduce pressure on resources, allowing for greater investment in education and skills development for a smaller, more skilled workforce. However, without proactive policies, India risks facing challenges similar to those in Japan and South Korea, where low fertility rates (1.2 and 0.75, respectively) have led to aging populations and economic stagnation.
Social Impacts
The declining fertility rate also poses social challenges. An aging population will increase demand for healthcare and pension systems, straining public resources. The UNFPA report emphasizes the need for “reproductive agency”—the ability to make informed choices about reproduction—as a critical factor in addressing unmet fertility goals. One in three Indian adults faces unintended pregnancies, and high adolescent fertility rates (14.1 per 1,000 women aged 15–19) in states like Bihar highlight the need for better education and healthcare access for young women.
Regional disparities in fertility rates could also exacerbate social and political tensions. States with lower TFRs, such as Tamil Nadu and Kerala, may face reduced political representation in the future as population-based resource allocation and parliamentary seats favor high-fertility states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. This raises questions about equity and the potential “punishment” of states that have successfully reduced fertility through social and economic progress.
Policy Challenges
The declining TFR calls for a reevaluation of India’s population policies. Historically focused on controlling population growth through family planning, the government must now shift toward addressing infertility, supporting reproductive choices, and preparing for an aging population. Experts like Dr. Kedar, quoted in ET HealthWorld, argue that family planning funds should be redirected to infertility treatments, given that India’s “population explosion” is no longer a concern. Technology, such as AI and digital health solutions, could expand access to affordable in-vitro fertilization (IVF) services, particularly in rural areas.
Moreover, the high adolescent fertility rate underscores the need for targeted interventions in education and healthcare. States like Bihar, with a TFR of 3.0, require investments in girls’ education and reproductive health to accelerate their demographic transition. The UNFPA report advocates for policies that prioritize individual reproductive agency over panic about falling fertility rates.
Regional Variations and Their Significance
India’s demographic landscape is marked by significant regional variations. Southern states, with TFRs below 1.6, are already below replacement levels, mirroring trends in developed nations. In contrast, northern states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan maintain higher fertility rates, driven by lower education levels, early marriages, and limited access to healthcare. For example, Bihar’s TFR of 3.0 is expected to reach replacement level only by 2039, according to the Expert Committee on Population Projection.
These variations have economic and political implications. Southern states, with declining populations, may face labor shortages and reduced political clout, while northern states with higher fertility could see increased representation in resource allocation. The Finance Commission’s population-based resource distribution model raises concerns about whether low-TFR states will be “punished” for their demographic success.
India’s population reaching 1.46 billion in 2025, coupled with a declining fertility rate of 1.9, marks a pivotal moment in its demographic journey. While the country’s youthful population and demographic dividend offer significant economic potential, the falling TFR and aging population present challenges that require proactive policy responses. By prioritizing education, healthcare, and reproductive agency, India can navigate this transition to ensure sustainable growth and equitable development. The focus must shift from managing population growth to empowering individuals to make informed choices, addressing regional disparities, and preparing for an aging society. As Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, noted, “The real fertility crisis is not about too many or too few people—it’s about whether individuals can make free, informed choices about their reproductive lives.”
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Last Updated on: Saturday, June 14, 2025 1:53 pm by Ventrapati Mahitha | Published by: Ventrapati Mahitha on Wednesday, June 11, 2025 12:25 pm | News Categories: India
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